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An upcoming high-level visit between Indian and Russian leaders is a key moment to nurture a time-tested relationship while navigating new global challenges.

When leaders of two major countries meet, it is more than just a handshake for the cameras. It is a sign of the health of their relationship and sets the direction for the future. The expected visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India is one such important event. For decades, India and Russia have shared a bond described as a 'special and privileged strategic partnership'. This meeting is a chance to ensure this old friendship remains strong in a world that is changing very fast.

Our Long-Standing Partner

For many Indians, Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) is a friend that has always been there for us. This partnership is built on strong pillars. The most important one is defence. From fighter jets like Sukhoi and MiG to tanks and submarines, a large part of our military equipment has Russian origins. Russia has also been a reliable partner at global forums like the United Nations, often supporting India's position on important issues. A recent example is the S-400 missile defence system deal, which went ahead despite pressure from other countries. This history shows a relationship built on trust and mutual respect.

New Questions and Challenges

However, the world today is not the same as it was during the Cold War. Both India and Russia face new situations that affect their relationship.

1. The China Factor: Russia has become very close to China, especially in recent years. For India, this is a major concern because of our own border problems with China. It raises a simple question: How does a deep friendship with Russia work when it is also very close to a country with which we have serious disagreements?

2. Balancing Friendships: At the same time, India is building stronger ties with countries like the USA, Japan, and Australia, particularly through groups like the Quad. This is important for our economy, technology, and for balancing China's growing power in Asia. This means India has to perform a careful balancing act between its old friend, Russia, and its new partners in the West.

3. The Economic Angle: Trade between India and Russia has shot up, mainly because India is buying large amounts of discounted Russian oil. This has helped control fuel prices in India, but it has also drawn criticism from some Western nations who have put sanctions. Managing the economic relationship is now more complex than ever.

The Way Forward: A Practical Approach

So, what should be India's approach? The goal should be to adapt our old friendship to new realities.

• Honest Dialogue: The leaders should use this visit to talk openly about all issues, including India’s concerns about the Russia-China partnership. Clear communication is the key to any strong relationship.
• Focus on 'Make in India': Instead of just buying military hardware, India should push for more joint production with Russia. This means building weapons and technology together, in India. This would boost our self-reliance and deepen the partnership.
• Explore New Avenues: The relationship should not just be about defence and energy. Both countries can work together more on space exploration, digital payments, and building new trade routes like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which can connect India to Europe via Russia.

The India-Russia relationship is a valuable asset that has served both nations well. Like any long-term friendship, it needs care and attention to thrive in changing times. The upcoming visit is an opportunity not just to look back at a shared history, but to build a modern partnership that respects each other's interests and addresses current challenges directly. By focusing on honest talks and practical cooperation, India can ensure that this classic friendship continues to be a source of strength and stability for years to come.

The United States and Iran have a long and complex history of tension, spanning decades. From the US's role in the overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh in 1953 to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran, relations between the two countries have always been tumultuous. In recent years, Iran's nuclear program and its growing regional influence have further escalated tensions. The situation became even more precarious after the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 and imposed stringent sanctions on Iran. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has exacerbated this situation, increasing the possibility of a major military conflict in the Middle East.

Current Situation and Latest Developments

Recent escalating military confrontations between Israel and Iran have made the question of direct US involvement even more relevant. According to the latest reports, the US has not explicitly stated whether it will attack Iran, but sources indicate that the US has a complete attack plan ready. US fighter jets and refueling aircraft have either arrived or are on their way to the Middle East. This development comes at a time when Israel is continuously attacking Iran's nuclear and military sites, and Iran has also prepared to target US military bases if it perceives the US is supporting Israel.

Donald Trump, currently the US President, has publicly supported diplomacy, but his recent statements suggest he might also back military action. He has warned Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though he stated he currently does not wish to eliminate him. The apprehension among US officials about further escalation of the war is growing, as Israel is pressuring the White House to join its campaign against Iran.

Diverse Perspectives and Key Facts

·         US Stance: The US administration has publicly stated its commitment to a diplomatic solution with Iran, especially regarding its nuclear program. However, increasing military presence in the region and issuing warnings to Iran are seen as a pressure tactic to bring Tehran to the negotiating table. The US also believes that if it attacks Iran's Fordow nuclear site, Iran-backed Houthi rebels would launch attacks on ships in the Red Sea, impacting global trade.

·         Iran's Stance: Iran has made it clear that it will retaliate strongly against any attack. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened that the US will "suffer" if it attacks. Iran has prepared missiles for US bases, and its supported militia groups could attack US military installations in Iraq and Syria. Iran also claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that Iran has violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has enriched enough uranium to potentially build nuclear bombs.

·         Israel's Stance: Israel views Iran's nuclear program as a direct existential threat and is prepared to take military action to dismantle it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to launch attacks on Iran's nuclear and military sites. Many experts believe that Israel wants to draw the US into this conflict.

·         Expert Opinions:

o    Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association states that Trump has opposed the use of military force as long as diplomacy was ongoing.

o    Ali Ansari, Professor of Iranian History at St Andrews University, believes the US was aware of Israeli attacks and wants Israel to lead. He also thinks that the threat of a US attack might compel Iran to negotiate.

o    Some experts argue that regime change in Iran is not a solution to the nuclear proliferation problem, as it is uncertain what would follow.

o    Nefiod, who served as Director for Iran on the US National Security Council, states that the withdrawal from the JCPOA directly contributes to the current situation.

Critical Analysis

The current tensions between the US and Iran have reached a dangerous point. Both sides are issuing threats and demonstrating their military capabilities. Israel's aggressive stance could pull the US into a war it likely doesn't want. The Trump administration's approach is complex, involving both diplomacy and military pressure. However, concerns about Iran's nuclear program are real, and Iran's increased uranium enrichment has exacerbated these worries.

It's crucial to understand that any major military conflict in this region would have devastating geopolitical consequences. It could lead to surging oil prices, destabilize the global economy, and ignite widespread violence across the Middle East. Iran-backed militia groups could become active, posing a threat to US interests and its allies in the region.

Based on my analysis, I believe that while the possibility of a direct military conflict between the US and Iran has increased, it can still be entirely avoided. Israel's aggressive posture has made the situation extremely volatile, and the pressure on the US from Israel is quite strong. However, the US still has an opportunity to find a diplomatic solution.

The restoration of the nuclear deal, even in a revised form, would be the most effective way to de-escalate tensions and control Iran's nuclear program. While military action might offer short-term gains, the long-term consequences would be catastrophic. It would destabilize the entire region and lead to unpredictable outcomes.

It's imperative that the US, in conjunction with its allies, adopts a strategy that not only addresses the Iranian nuclear threat but also focuses on a broader regional security framework. This should include addressing Iran's regional behavior and providing security guarantees for all parties. War serves no one's interest, and diplomacy and dialogue are the only sustainable solutions to this complex problem. The global community must consider all possible measures to avert this crisis.